How to find value bets in football
4 min read · InstagramA price has value when it beats the fair odds implied by the probability. How to calculate it, a real example and where to find fair odds for each match.
A price has value when it is higher than the fair odds, and fair odds are simply 1 divided by the probability of the event. If you estimate that something happens half the time, its fair odds are 2.00: a price of 2.30 sits above that (value, in theory) and a price of 1.70 sits below.
This guide shows how to do the calculation, why the probability is the hard part, a real example from the Compact Analysis and where to find the fair odds for each match on CornerPro.
What is a value bet?
It means choosing only the lines where the available price is higher than the true probability of the event would justify. It is not a way of being right more often. It is a way of checking whether the price of a line agrees with the data.
The idea is simple; the difficulty is estimating the probability well. If the estimate is poor, the "fair" odds will be wrong too, and the apparent value does not exist.
What are fair odds?
Fair odds are the odds that match a probability exactly, with no margin for anyone:
fair odds = 1 ÷ probability
- 50% probability → 1 ÷ 0.50 = 2.00
- 75% probability → 1 ÷ 0.75 = 1.33
- 30% probability → 1 ÷ 0.30 = 3.33
It works the other way too: any price can be turned into an implied probability (1 ÷ odds). Odds of 2.50 imply 40%.
How to calculate a value bet in football
- Estimate the probability of the event from data: frequency in recent matches, context, home and away.
- Work out the fair odds with 1 ÷ probability.
- Compare with the available price. If it is higher than the fair odds, there is theoretical value. If it is equal or lower, there is none.
With numbers: fair odds of 2.00 and an available price of 2.30. The price implies 43%; your estimate says 50%. That gap is the value. At 1.70 (59% implied) the price sits below your estimate and there is no value.
How to tell whether a price is good: frequency, sample and context
The calculation is only as good as the probability you feed into it. Three checks:
- Frequency is not probability. 50% over the last 20 matches means it happened in 10 of them. It is your best clue, not a certainty about the next one.
- Sample size. With 5 matches, one result moves the frequency by 20 points. With 20, the estimate is steadier.
- Context. A key absence, a new manager or a match with nothing to play for can make the sample out of date.
Real example: Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios (Liga BetPlay)
In the corners Compact Analysis on 30/09/2026, for Independiente Medellín vs Millonarios in Colombia's Liga BetPlay, the numbers from both teams' recent matches were:
- Over 8.5 match corners: 50% → fair odds 2.00.
- Over 9.5 match corners: 30% → fair odds 3.33.
- A corner before the 37th minute (37HT): 75% → fair odds 1.33 (1 ÷ 0.75).
- Average corners per match: 8.85.
How to read it: for over 8.5, a price above 2.00 would have theoretical value on this frequency; 1.80 would not. But the average of 8.85 sits right on top of the line, which calls for caution: a 50% frequency says the match could go either way. The 37HT reading, at 75%, is the most stable of the three, and its fair odds of 1.33 mean only prices above that level would make sense.
Where to find fair odds on CornerPro
- Compact Analysis: under the over and match-result percentages you will see the matching fair odds, for every match of the day in one table. For interval columns such as 37HT, use the same calculation.
- Goals and Corners tabs on each match page: the same information, with the full match detail.
Frequently asked questions
Is a value bet a guarantee? No. It means the price is better than your estimate of the probability. A line with value can still lose, and often will.
Why do odds go up or down? Because the market reacts to information: line-ups, injuries, money coming in on one side and, in play, what is happening on the pitch.
What sample does CornerPro use for the frequencies? By default, the home side's last 10 home matches and the away side's last 10 away matches.
How do I turn odds into a probability? Divide 1 by the odds. Odds of 1.50 imply 67%.
See the fair odds for every match in the Compact Analysis
Related tutorials
A market has a 50% probability and the bookmaker offers odds of 1.70. Is there value?
Answer to mark this tutorial as done.