England v Croatia and 5 Nations League games in numbers

Thursday and Friday bring matchweek 5 of League A in the Nations League, with 6 games, while the six leagues we follow take a break. Each team has played only 4 games in this competition, so next to every number from those 4 games we put the same number from their last 10 competitive games. By our rules, 4 of the 6 games show a clear trend and the other two have no clear trend.

xG = expected goals: how many goals a team's chances usually produce. CornerPro data to 10/11/2026; tables from ESPN on 10/11/2026.

Spain host England on Sunday, first against second in Group A3.

EnglandUEFA Nations League2 - 1Full time · Thursday 12 NovemberCroatia

9 of 10

Croatia games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

8 of 10

England games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

7 of 14

England goals in this competition that came in the 7-0 in Croatia4 games

England v Croatia · Nations League, Group A3

Of Croatia's last 10 competitive games, 9 had 3 or more goals, and so did 8 of England's 10. Croatia conceded 24 goals in those 10 games (2.40 per game) and kept just one clean sheet; England scored 30 (3.00 per game). In other words, a lean towards plenty of goals.

The numbers from this Nations League are harder to read because of one game. England have scored 14 in 4 games and conceded 3, but 7 of those came in the 7-0 win in Croatia on 03/10; without that game, they scored 7 and conceded 3 in 3. Croatia have conceded 14 in 4 games, half of them that night. Bear in mind: short sample.

England won 8 of their last 10 competitive games and Croatia 5. Our favourite line needs the opponent to have 3 wins or fewer, so England come close but don't qualify as favourites. There is no trend on corners: the two sides' last 10 games averaged 8.80 and 9.00 corners in total, above 8.5, so not few either; and only 3 in 10 on each side reached 10. The referee is Denmark's Morten Krogh, with 3.49 yellow cards per game in 37 games since July 2025, within the normal range.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, England are 2nd in Group A3 on 9 points, 3 behind Spain, and Croatia 3rd on 3. Before October's 7-0, England had already beaten Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup, on 17/06/2026. That's context, not a trend.

See England v Croatia on the match page.

See the analysis of England v Croatia →

ItalyUEFA Nations League3 - 1Full time · Thursday 12 NovemberFrance

4.60

yellow cards per game from referee Kovács53 games since 07/2025

2

goals conceded by France in this Nations League4 games

3.25

Italy corners per game in this competition4 games (6.00 in the last 10)

Italy v France · Nations League, Group A1

The referee is Romania's István Kovács, who shows the most yellow cards of the four referees already appointed for these 6 games: 4.60 per game in 53 games since July 2025, with 20 reds. He reached 5 or more yellows in 26 of those 53 games. In other words, a lean towards cards above normal. The reverse fixture in Paris already had 6 yellows and a red.

On goals neither side reaches our line of 6 in 10: of Italy's last 10 competitive games, 5 had 3 or more goals, and of France's only 4. In this competition France have conceded 2 goals in 4 games (3 wins and 1 draw) and none in their 2 away games; in their last 10 competitive games they conceded 11, but 6 came in the 6-4 defeat by England at the World Cup. Italy have scored 8 in 4 games, 2.00 per game, the same average as in their last 10. Bear in mind: short sample.

There is no trend on corners either: Italy's last 10 games averaged 10.80 corners in total (both sides added together) and France's 9.50. The contrast is in Italy, who have 6.00 corners per game in their last 10, but only 3.25 in this competition, with 7.25 against (4 games, short sample). Part of that 6.00 comes from World Cup qualifying, with 13 corners of their own in the game in Moldova and 12 in the game against Northern Ireland.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, France are top of Group A1 on 10 points and Italy 2nd on 7. They drew 1-1 in Paris on 02/10/2026; in their two games in 2024 the away side won, both times 3-1. That's context, not a trend.

See Italy v France on the match page.

See the analysis of Italy v France →

Czech RepublicUEFA Nations League0 - 2Full time · Thursday 12 NovemberSpain

10 of 10

Spain winslast 10 competitive

0

Czechia points in this Nations League4 games

8 of 10

Czechia games with 3+ goalslast 10 competitive

Czechia v Spain · Nations League, Group A3

Spain have won their last 10 competitive games, 6 of them at the World Cup, scoring 22 and conceding 6. Czechia have won 1 of their last 10, with 3 draws and 6 defeats, and that win was 6-0 against Gibraltar, in November 2025. In other words, Spain arrive as clear favourites.

In this Nations League the gap is the same: Spain won all 4 games (12-5 on goals) and Czechia lost all 4 (2-10). On expected goals (xG), Czechia create 0.50 per game and concede 1.77, while Spain create 2.00 and concede 0.92. Bear in mind: short sample (4 games each); in their last 10 competitive games, Czechia score 1.40 goals per game and concede 2.00, and Spain score 2.20 and concede 0.60.

On goals both sides point the same way. Of Czechia's last 10 games, 8 had 3 or more goals, as did 6 of Spain's 10. For Spain, though, 4 of those 6 are the games in this Nations League, which all had 3 or more goals and goals for both sides (short sample); of the other 6, at the World Cup, only 2 reached 3. In other words, a lean towards plenty of goals, resting mostly on Czechia's side. The referee is Montenegro's Nikola Dabanović, with 3.59 yellow cards per game in 44 games since July 2025, within the normal range.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, Spain are top of Group A3 on 12 points and Czechia bottom on 0. Spain won the reverse fixture 3-1, on 03/10/2026. That's context, not a trend.

See Czechia v Spain on the match page.

See the analysis of Czech Republic v Spain →

SerbiaUEFA Nations League19:45Friday 13 NovemberGermany

1.94

Germany expected goals (xG) per game in this competition4 games

3

goals scored by Germany in this competition4 games

0

Serbia points in this Nations League4 games

Serbia v Germany · Nations League, Group A2

This is one of the two games with no clear trend. On goals, 6 of Serbia's last 10 competitive games had 3 or more, but only 4 of Germany's 10: the two sides point in different directions. Germany won 5 of those 10 and Serbia 3, so there is no favourite by our line either, which needs 7 wins.

The number that stands out is Germany's in this competition: they create 1.94 expected goals (xG) per game but have scored only 3 in 4 games (1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat), and none of those games had 3 or more goals. In their last 10 competitive games they score 2.20 per game, but 13 of those 22 goals came in two games, 7-1 against Curaçao and 6-0 against Slovakia; without them, it is 9 in 8 games. Bear in mind: short sample.

Serbia lost all 4 games in this competition, scoring 3 and conceding 8, and 7 of their last 10 competitive games. On corners, Germany have 7.00 per game in their last 10 and Serbia 5.10, and, adding both teams' corners together, Serbia's games average 9.90 in total and Germany's 10.70: 10.30 between the two, below our 10.5 line. Referee to be confirmed.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, Germany are 3rd in Group A2 on 5 points and Serbia bottom on 0. Germany won the reverse fixture 2-0, on 01/10/2026. That's context, not a trend.

See Serbia v Germany on the match page.

See the analysis of Serbia v Germany →

NetherlandsUEFA Nations League19:45Friday 13 NovemberGreece

7 of 10

games with 3+ goals, for each teamlast 10 competitive

9 of 10

Netherlands games with goals for both sideslast 10 competitive

0

Netherlands defeatslast 10 competitive

Netherlands v Greece · Nations League, Group A2

Of each team's last 10 competitive games, 7 had 3 or more goals. The Netherlands scored and conceded in 9 of those 10, and in all 4 in this Nations League too (short sample). In other words, a lean towards plenty of goals, and the Netherlands almost always score and concede.

The Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 10 competitive games (5 wins and 5 draws), and Greece are unbeaten in this competition (2 wins and 2 draws, including 1-0 in Germany on 27/09). Over their last 10 competitive games, Greece won 4 and lost 3. In other words, there is no favourite by our line.

On corners, the Netherlands have 7.50 per game in this competition (4 games, short sample, and their 12 corners in the game against Germany weigh heavily; without that game, 6.00); in their last 10 competitive games they have 5.60, and Greece 5.20. In other words, no clear trend on corners. Referee to be confirmed.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, the Netherlands and Greece both have 8 points and sit 1st and 2nd in Group A2. They drew the reverse fixture 2-2 in Athens, on 01/10/2026. That's context, not a trend.

See Netherlands v Greece on the match page.

See the analysis of Netherlands v Greece →

TürkiyeUEFA Nations League1 - 2Full time · Thursday 12 NovemberBelgium

1.41

Türkiye expected goals (xG) per game in this competition4 games

0.50

goals scored by Türkiye per game in this competition4 games

4.21

yellow cards per game from referee Schärer34 games since 07/2025

Türkiye v Belgium · Nations League, Group A1

This is the other game with no clear trend, and the first on Thursday, at 17:00. On goals, 5 of Türkiye's last 10 competitive games had 3 or more and 6 of Belgium's 10; our line needs 6 on each side. Belgium won 5 of those 10, and the favourite line needs 7.

What there is, is a Türkiye side that creates more than it scores. In this competition they create 1.41 expected goals (xG) per game and have scored 0.50 (2 goals in 4 games, all lost, with 11 conceded). In their last 10 competitive games they score 0.90 per game and won 3. Bear in mind: short sample.

On corners, Türkiye have 6.10 per game in their last 10 competitive games and Belgium 3.80, but Türkiye's figure is pushed up by their 12 corners in the game against Paraguay at the World Cup; without that game, 5.44. The referee is Switzerland's Sandro Schärer, with 4.21 yellow cards per game in 34 games since July 2025, within the normal range.

In the group

Going into the matchweek, Belgium are 3rd in Group A1 on 6 points and Türkiye bottom on 0. Belgium won the reverse fixture 3-0, on 02/10/2026. That's context, not a trend.

See Türkiye v Belgium on the match page.

See the analysis of Türkiye v Belgium →

How the 7 and 8 November readings turned out

• Across the two weekend articles we gave 30 expectations with a direction in 15 games: 18 held and 12 failed (one on cards, Roma v Sassuolo, was left out because we do not have a confirmed record of the yellow cards).
• All 5 favourites won (Real Madrid, Arsenal, Porto, Benfica and Brighton) and 6 of the 10 "plenty of goals" calls held. On corners it was 5 of 9: all 4 on Saturday failed (RB Leipzig v Augsburg had 4 corners when the two teams' average pointed to 11.40) and all 5 on Sunday held.
• On cards only 2 of 6 held. In other words, the referee's yellow-card average was the reading that held up least this weekend.

We counted as held: the favourite winning; 3 or more goals; 10 or more corners (9 or fewer for "few"); more corners for the team named; 5 or more yellows for "above normal" and 3 or fewer for "few".

How we read these numbers

CornerPro data to 10/11/2026, finished competitive games only, no friendlies; none of these 12 teams play before Thursday. Each team has played only 4 games in this Nations League (2 at home and 2 away), too few to give a trend, so our rules use each team's last 10 competitive games, in all competitions (the 2026 World Cup and qualifying included). When a number comes only from those 4 games, we say so and, almost always, put the same number from the last 10 alongside. We call plenty of goals when at least 6 of each team's last 10 games had 3 or more; plenty of corners when the average between the two is above 10.5 and 6 of each side's 10 reached 10 (few: 8.5 or below and 3 or fewer of the 10 games reaching 10 corners). A clear favourite has 7 or more wins in the last 10 and the opponent 3 or fewer. A referee is within the normal range between 3.30 and 4.30 yellow cards per game (since July 2025). "No clear trend" means the two sides point in different directions or neither reaches the line. Tables from ESPN on 10/11/2026, before matchweek 5. If you use these numbers to bet, decide beforehand how much you can afford to lose and never chase losses. Betting is for over-18s only.